January 2017. Using the hybrid Phylogeny/Antigenicity Prediction model (P/A-PM) invented by FutureFlu.org, FutureFlu.org calculated and announced A/Montana/04/2016 as the candidate vaccine for the 2017-18 flu season.
March 2017. World Health Organization/CDC recommended A/Michigan/45/2015 for 2017-18.
The two vaccines are a perfect match, validating FutureFlu's P/A-PM prediction model, more . . .
All phylogenetic trees were created from protein sequences of the strains using Newick formatted output from Clustal/Ω, curated with Dendroscope.
Presently, we can only limit the virus with seasonal vaccine as it mutates to defeat our adaptive immunity. A universal flu vaccine that preemptively immunizes against majority of the strains remains daunting.
Using recombinant vectors, nanoparticles and other yet to be invented microbiology technologies, someday we will have a universal flu vaccine and reduce the flu associated morbidity and mortality.
Flu virus mutates aggressively, aided by its segmented RNA genome and often reassorts with zoonotic viruses to cause devastating pandemics. Scientists track its genome to design seasonal vaccines.
A partial phylogenetic tree of the strains used by WHO for validating the H1N1pdm component of the 2016-17 flu vaccine. A/California/07/2009 (in yellow) is on a remote branch, showing the antigenic shift that has occurred between the vaccine and the prevalent strains and the need for a new vaccine.
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This website is currently tracking the H1N1pdm strain of the influenza virus. Extending the project to other three strains of the quadrivalent vaccine recommended by the World Health Organimzation, namely, H3N2, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata are works-in-progress.
2017-09-05: According to the WHO Weekly Report dated 04 Sep 2017, Type A influenza (H1N1pdm and H3N2) continues to dominate the flu sickness with 89.2% of the reported cases. FutureFlu is extending the Prediction Model to H3N2, with emphasis on epitopes A-E in the H1 HA molecule? More ...